Here We Go, Here We Go...Again!

So, England laid the ghost of 1973 to rest with a 2-0 World Cup Qualifier win over Poland on Tuesday night. This time, unlike forty years ago, there was no Jan Tomaszewski singlehandedly denying England; goals from Rooney and Gerrard secured England's place in Brazil in 2014.

I remember the game back in '73 well; who among us of a certain age doesn't? Poland came to Wembley needing just the one point to qualify, which they duly earned. England finished second in the group and that year there was no second chance, no play-offs to fall back on. What I had forgotten, until I looked it up in Wikipedia, was that the qualifying group consisted of England, Poland and Wales...and that was it. Imagine, England had to play just four games to try and qualify, not the ten needed now; just four games and after a 2-0 defeat in Poland, the writing was on the wall. Mind you, Wales managed to beat Poland for their only three points in the group; had Poland won in Cardiff, the match at Wembley in October 1973 would have been a dead rubber anyway.

Jan Tomaszewski denies England at Wembley in 1973. Photo: theguardian.com 

In 1974 in Germany there were sixteen finalists; that number has now doubled and while there will be the inevitable minnows, the also rans, there are sufficient good sides to supplement those we can honestly call great sides, meaning that progress will be difficult. It is moot as to whether the increased number of teams in the finals improves or devalues the competition. On the one hand it does mean that some of the heavy weight nations don't eliminate each other in qualifying, but it also means that some teams can only really be there for the ride, for the opportunity to swap shirts with the Messis and Ronaldos of this world. That said, the last World Cup in South Africa saw France and Italy finish bottom of their respective groups, so perhaps there is something to be said for the competitiveness of having thirty two teams after all.

No piece about England the World Cup is complete without the obligatory picture of Bobby Moore and the Jules Rimet Trophy. Photo: Daily Mail

Roy Hodgson now joins the small group of England managers who have had the chance to lead their country into the World Cup Finals, but what of his chances of success? Let's be honest, they are slim; after all, if France and Italy failed to make the last sixteen in 2010, there is no guarantee that England will escape their group, although this largely depends on who they have to play. We won't know who England's opponents will be until 6th December, but we do know that they will be seeded in the second pot and so will have to face one of the top sides, like Brazil or Germany. Regardless of the draw, the press will immediately forecast that England will progress to the next round, possibly conceding that they may have to be content with second place in the group if we do draw Brazil, or Germany...or Argentina, or Spain.

Every four years it is the same (well every two years actually as they are exactly the same at the Euros); the press build up England's chances only to knock them down again after the inevitable elimination, usually on penalties after one hundred and twenty minutes have elapsed in which England haven't mustered a shot on target.

Assuming that England qualify from their group there will come a day, in the last sixteen or maybe even the last eight, when Gary Lineker or Adrian Chiles will lead their team of TV pundits in a jingoistic exposition of how and why England must reach the next round. Come the game and those of you who like to add a little fun to the torture of watching England play in major tournaments might like to play Commentator Bingo by seeing who can spot the most hackneyed phrases and tired clichés first. "England expects" is a good one (often uttered as soon as the first whistle is blown) as are any references to the coincidence that England are wearing red, as they did in the 1966 final, which must be a good omen. If England play USA reference will be made to the 1950 finals when the Americans pulled off an almighty shock by winning 1-0 in Belo Horizonte. If England play Germany then it won't be long before penalties are mentioned; if Chris Waddle or Gareth Southgate are in the commentary box then they will be expected to trot out the story of their missed spot kicks in 1990 and 1994; meanwhile every second remark will be a reference to the 1966 final. The fact that no European country has won a World Cup in South America is another fact that will be repeated frequently as though no one at home was aware of it. Two hours later Lineker or Chiles will sit po-faced while the panel dissect England's shortcomings.

Oh, the ignomy! Gaetjens scored for USA in their 1-0 win in the 1950 World Cup. Photo: The Daisy Cutter.

Am I being too harsh? Possibly, but the reality is that no matter how well England play they will not win the World Cup next year, there are too many other good teams there for that to happen. Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain for starters, with countries like Netherlands and Belgium having at least as good, if not a better chance of success than England. The Netherlands have a history of imploding at major championships though, but they did manage to get their act together and reach the final last time out and what a bust that was! Fourteen yellow cards (although how Nigel De Jong didn't see red I don't know) in a bad tempered game settled in Spain's favour (to the delight of most neutrals)by an Iniesta goal in extra-time. The 2010 final was another in a long line of dull, bad tempered or just plain nasty finals that seem to continually surprise the commentators, who naively expect the final to be fiesta of free-flowing football, peppered with a host of spectacular goals. The last final like that was probably 1958 when Brazil beat Sweden 5-2.

Belgium are being touted as having a good side, and certainly they have some outstanding individual talent in the likes of Mignolet, Vertonghe, Vermaelen, Hazard, Fellaini, Lukaku, Mirallis and Benteke. I would expect them to reach the quarter-finals, maybe even the semis, but if I had to put money on it I would predict a Brazil-Germany final, with the hosts coming out on top.

You may think that I am being unnecessarily pessimistic; you may think that I am denigrating the England team: I'm not, I am just being realistic. Roy Hodgson has made the best of the assets he has; he has England playing as well as we might expect. With Sturridge and Welbeck taking some of the weight off Rooney's shoulders in the goalscoring department, with Leighton Baines finally emerging from Ashley Cole's shadow as a classy full-back, with the ever dependable Steven Gerrard (for whom this World Cup must be the last hurrah), and with the emergence of Andreas Townsend, Hodgson must believe that he has a squad that will fulfil its potential. How far that potential will take them remains to be seen.

Gratuitous picture of attractive Brazilian football fan; they all look like this apparently.

 Hodgson has achieved the first goal and qualified for the finals, now comes his toughest test, managing our expectations and dealing with the media who will inevitably swing into action by making outrageous predictions that come next July Steven Gerrard will be holding the FIFA World Cup aloft. When this doesn't materialise the graphics departments of the tabloids will be Photoshopping poor old Roy's head onto a root vegetable.

Graham Taylor suffered particularly at the hands of the tabloid press following England's failure to qualify for the 1994 World Cup Finals.

It is odd that the normal English mindset, "hope for the best, prepare for the worst", goes completely out of the window at World Cup Finals when we tend to prepare for the best possible outcome and fall into despair and recriminations when this doesn't happen. The last time England even had a sniff of World Cup glory was in 1990 in Italy, losing almost inevitably to Germany on penalties. If the 2014 World Cup were in Europe I think that Roy Hodgson's side would have an even chance of emulating Bobby Robson's 1990 team; it will be harder in Brazil and I don't expect England to progress beyond the quarter-finals. Just this once though, if we do have to go out of the competition at that stage it would be nice to do so playing attractive, attacking football and be able to say that on the day we just lost to the better team.